Value bet: Accrington ST to win @ 3.20 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSwindon Town to win ✗44% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.24
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST preview and prediction
The match
Swindon Town host Accrington ST in the League Two on Saturday 26 September, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at County Ground. Swindon Town are 13th with 19 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Accrington ST sit 9th on 19 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Swindon Town's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Newport County 0–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Accrington ST's last 5: DDLWD Most recently they drew with Sunderland U21 3–3 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Swindon Town and 1.4 for Accrington ST. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Swindon Town 44%, draw 21%, Accrington ST 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Accrington ST to win at 3.20 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Swindon Town 1–1 Accrington ST. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Swindon Town44%fair 2.28 · @2.15
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.40
Accrington ST35%fair 2.84 · @3.20
2.89Expected goals
1.54Swindon Town xG
1.35Accrington ST xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Swindon Town 1.5 – 1.4 Accrington ST expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Swindon Town to win✗
44%
2.28
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Swindon Town / FT Swindon Town✗
25%
4.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.24
–
Form
Swindon Town – last 6
LLLLWW
22 Sep
vs Newport County
0–2
L
19 Sep
@ Salford City
0–1
L
15 Sep
vs Crystal Palace U21
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ York
0–4
L
5 Sep
vs Colchester
3–1
W
1 Sep
vs Port Vale
3–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Accrington ST – last 6
DDLWDL
22 Sep
vs Sunderland U21
3–3
D
19 Sep
vs Newport County
0–0
D
12 Sep
@ Barnet
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Crawley Town
3–2
W
1 Sep
vs Grimsby
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Walsall
2–3
L
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Swindon Town and Accrington ST.
What is the prediction for Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
On our numbers Swindon Town have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Accrington ST 35%.
How many goals will there be in Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Our predicted score is Swindon Town 1–1 Accrington ST, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at County Ground.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
