League Two · England · Rodney ParadeNewport County vs Grimsby prediction & analysis
Grimsby or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Grimsby to win @ 1.80 – our chance 66% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Newport County 0.7 – 2.0 Grimsby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Grimsby travel as clear favourites – 66% to win, against 13% for Newport County.
Newport County have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Grimsby have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.7 goals (0.7 for Newport County, 2.0 for Grimsby). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13%), 0–2 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Grimsby or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Grimsby to win at 1.80 is our value angle (66% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Grimsby to win ✗ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Grimsby or draw ✗ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.22 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.43 | 1.36 |
| Half-time result | Grimsby ahead at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Grimsby / FT Grimsby ✗ | 42% | 2.35 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.70 | – |
Form
Newport County – last 6
| 22 Sep | @ Swindon Town | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Accrington ST | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Fleetwood Town | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | @ Northampton | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Sep | @ Salford City | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Tranmere | 2–2 | D |
Grimsby – last 6
| 22 Sep | @ Notts County | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Crawley Town | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Bristol Rovers | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Cheltenham | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Sep | @ Accrington ST | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Fleetwood Town | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newport County and Grimsby.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | +10 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | +10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 14 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington ST | 14 | +6 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | -2 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | +3 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | -5 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | -6 | 16 |
| 18 |  Oldham | 14 | -4 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | -4 | 15 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | -7 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | -7 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | -8 | 9 |
More League Two predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Newport County vs Grimsby?
Our pick is Grimsby or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Newport County vs Grimsby?
On our numbers Newport County have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Grimsby 66%.
How many goals will there be in Newport County vs Grimsby?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Newport County vs Grimsby?
Newport County vs Grimsby (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Rodney Parade.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.