Value bet: FC Tokyo to win @ 1.70 – our chance 67% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Tokyo to win ✓67% · @1.70
Double chanceFC Tokyo or draw ✓88% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.27
V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo preview and prediction
The match
V-varen Nagasaki host FC Tokyo in the J1 League on Saturday 29 August, with kick-off at 10:30 (WAT) at Peace Stadium. V-varen Nagasaki are 9th with 21 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while FC Tokyo sit 2nd on 37 points (in the top four). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
V-varen Nagasaki's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Ehime FC 3–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 2.3 conceded.
FC Tokyo's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Parceiro Nagano 6–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
FC Tokyo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 0.9 for V-varen Nagasaki and 2.3 for FC Tokyo. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score in 55% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: V-varen Nagasaki 12%, draw 22%, FC Tokyo 67%.
Safer route: FC Tokyo or draw (88%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Value angle: FC Tokyo to win at 1.70 – 67% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: V-varen Nagasaki 0–2 FC Tokyo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
V-varen Nagasaki12%fair 8.52 · @4.80
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.65
FC Tokyo67%fair 1.50 · @1.70
3.16Expected goals
0.89V-varen Nagasaki xG
2.27FC Tokyo xG
55%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
1–210%
0–110%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: V-varen Nagasaki 0.9 – 2.3 FC Tokyo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Tokyo to win✓
67%
1.50
1.70 ▲
Double chance
FC Tokyo or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.33
Half-time result
FC Tokyo ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Tokyo / FT FC Tokyo✓
45%
2.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.27
–
Form
V-varen Nagasaki – last 6
WLLWLL
26 Aug
vs Ehime FC
3–2
W
21 Aug
@ Kashiwa Reysol
2–4
L
15 Aug
@ Fagiano Okayama
0–1
L
9 Aug
vs Kyoto Sanga
2–1
W
17 Jul
@ Utrecht
2–3
L
14 Jul
@ NEC Nijmegen
1–3
L
1.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
FC Tokyo – last 6
WWDLLW
26 Aug
vs Parceiro Nagano
6–0
W
21 Aug
vs JEF United Chiba
2–0
W
15 Aug
@ Vissel Kobe
2–2
D
8 Aug
vs Machida Zelvia
1–5
L
1 Aug
vs Borussia Dortmund
0–1
L
21 Jul
vs Nagoya Grampus
2–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between V-varen Nagasaki and FC Tokyo.
What is the prediction for V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo?
On our numbers V-varen Nagasaki have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 22% and FC Tokyo 67%.
How many goals will there be in V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo?
Our predicted score is V-varen Nagasaki 0–2 FC Tokyo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo?
V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time) at Peace Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Gamba Osaka0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima0
Shimizu S-pulse0
Kyoto Sanga2
Avispa Fukuoka1
Nagoya Grampus2
Fagiano Okayama1