Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultASA to win ✗51% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.84
ASA vs Sergipe preview and prediction
The match
Sergipe travel to face ASA in the Serie D on Sunday 21 June (21:00 WAT).
Form guide
ASA's last 5: DDLDW Most recently they drew with Jacuipense 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Sergipe's last 5: DLDWD Most recently they drew with Serra Branca 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.4 for ASA and 0.9 for Sergipe. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: ASA 51%, draw 24%, Sergipe 26%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 54% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: ASA 1–1 Sergipe. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ASA51%fair 1.96 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @2.90
Sergipe26%fair 3.92 · @3.40
2.25Expected goals
1.38ASA xG
0.86Sergipe xG
54%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–113%
0–011%
2–010%
0–19%
2–19%
From our goals model: ASA 1.4 – 0.9 Sergipe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ASA to win✗
51%
1.96
2.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.87
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ASA / FT ASA✗
29%
3.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.84
–
Form
ASA – last 6
DDLDWL
14 Jun
@ Jacuipense
1–1
D
30 May
vs CSE
0–0
D
7 May
@ Sport Recife
0–1
L
30 Apr
@ Juazeirense
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs CRB
2–0
W
2 Apr
vs CSA
2–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Sergipe – last 5
DLDWD
14 Jun
vs Serra Branca
1–1
D
31 May
@ Decisão
2–3
L
17 May
@ Lagarto
1–1
D
4 May
@ Retrô
3–1
W
27 Feb
@ América SE
1–1
D
1.6Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
100%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ASA and Sergipe.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win ASA vs Sergipe?
On our numbers ASA have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sergipe 26%.
How many goals will there be in ASA vs Sergipe?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ASA vs Sergipe?
Our predicted score is ASA 1–1 Sergipe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is ASA vs Sergipe?
ASA vs Sergipe (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Serie D · Brazil
Parnahyba2
Águia de Marabá1
Central SC1
Ferroviario1
Brasiliense0
Goiatuba EC0
Cascavel2
Marcílio Dias2
Sao Jose1
Santa Catarina1
Portuguesa RJ1
Noroeste1
Tuna Luso1
Iguatu2
Altos0
ABC1