Serie D · Brazil
Central SC vs Ferroviario prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Central SC 1.0 – 1.0 Ferroviario expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Central SC and Ferroviario on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 36% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Central SC have taken 5 points from their last 4 matches (1W 2D 1L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.8 per game. Ferroviario have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.0 for Central SC, 1.0 for Ferroviario). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (14%), 0–0 (13%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.54. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.10 is our value angle (52% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Central SC to win ✗ | 38% | 2.60 | 2.35 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.94 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 82% | 1.21 | 1.17 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 50% | 2.01 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 22% | 4.64 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.29 | – |
Form
Central SC – last 4
| 14 Jun | vs Laguna | 2–1 | W |
| 29 May | @ America-RN | 0–1 | L |
| 17 May | vs Maguary PE | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Apr | @ Laguna | 1–1 | D |
Ferroviario – last 6
| 13 Jun | vs Fluminense PI | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Jun | @ TirolCEFAT | 0–0 | D |
| 17 May | vs Uniclinic Atletico Clube | 2–0 | W |
| 11 May | @ Piauí | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Apr | @ ABC | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Apr | vs Retrô | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Central SC and Ferroviario.
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Tombense0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Central SC vs Ferroviario?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Central SC vs Ferroviario?
On our numbers Central SC have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Ferroviario 36%.
How many goals will there be in Central SC vs Ferroviario?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Central SC vs Ferroviario?
Central SC vs Ferroviario (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.