Value bet: Paris FC to win @ 2.30 – our chance 53% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultParis FC to win ✗53% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.33
Estac Troyes vs Paris FC preview and prediction
The match
The Ligue 1 sees Estac Troyes take on Paris FC on Saturday 22 August, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT). Estac Troyes are 17th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Paris FC sit 3rd on 20 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Estac Troyes's last 5: DDWWW Most recently they drew with Panetolikos 1–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Paris FC's last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to Angers 2–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.2 for Estac Troyes and 1.7 for Paris FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Estac Troyes 27%, draw 21%, Paris FC 53%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Paris FC to win at 2.30 – 53% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Estac Troyes 1–1 Paris FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estac Troyes27%fair 3.77 · @2.90
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.45
Paris FC53%fair 1.90 · @2.30
2.89Expected goals
1.15Estac Troyes xG
1.74Paris FC xG
59%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–210%
0–110%
0–28%
2–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Estac Troyes 1.2 – 1.7 Paris FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paris FC to win✗
53%
1.90
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.44
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paris FC / FT Paris FC✗
31%
3.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.33
–
Form
Estac Troyes – last 6
DDWWWL
14 Aug
vs Panetolikos
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Auxerre
1–1
D
25 Jul
@ Grenoble
3–0
W
18 Jul
vs RED Star FC 93
1–0
W
11 Jul
@ Nancy
3–1
W
13 Apr
@ Rodez
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Paris FC – last 6
LLDWWW
15 Aug
@ Angers
2–3
L
8 Aug
@ FSV Mainz 05
0–4
L
1 Aug
@ VfB Stuttgart
2–2
D
18 Jul
vs Reims
1–0
W
17 May
vs Paris Saint Germain
2–1
W
10 Apr
vs Monaco
4–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estac Troyes and Paris FC.
What is the prediction for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
On our numbers Estac Troyes have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Paris FC 53%.
How many goals will there be in Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Our predicted score is Estac Troyes 1–1 Paris FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Estac Troyes vs Paris FC (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
