Ligue 1 · France · Allianz RivieraNice vs Lorient prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Nice 1.6 – 1.2 Lorient expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Nice hold the edge on home soil with a 48% chance of winning, against 31% for Lorient.
Nice have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.5 per game. Lorient have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.6 for Nice, 1.2 for Lorient). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 62%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Nice have won 0, Lorient have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 6.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.32.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Nice to win ✗ | 48% | 2.08 | 2.08 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 62% | 1.63 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 53% | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.38 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 41% | 2.42 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Nice / FT Nice ✗ | 28% | 3.63 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 10% | 10.24 | – |
Form
Nice – last 6
| 15 Aug | @ Hull City | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Aug | @ Cagliari | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Jul | @ Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Jul | vs Nimes | 4–0 | W |
| 29 May | vs Saint Etienne | 4–1 | W |
| 26 May | @ Saint Etienne | 0–0 | D |
Lorient – last 6
| 15 Aug | @ SV Elversberg | 1–4 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Angers | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Aug | vs UNFP | 5–1 | W |
| 25 Jul | @ Guingamp | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Jul | vs Nantes | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Jul | @ Concarneau | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Feb 2026 | Nice v Lorient | 3–3 |
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 |  Lille | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Marseille | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Lyon | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Nice | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Rennes | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Lens | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 10 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Angers | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 10 | -13 | 2 |
More Ligue 1 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Nice vs Lorient?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Nice vs Lorient?
On our numbers Nice have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lorient 31%.
How many goals will there be in Nice vs Lorient?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Nice vs Lorient?
Nice vs Lorient (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Riviera.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.