Toulouse host Lyon in the Ligue 1 on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stadium de Toulouse. Toulouse are 12th with 13 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Lyon sit 5th on 17 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Toulouse's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Hamburger SV 1–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Lyon's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with Fenerbahçe 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Lyon arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Toulouse and 1.5 for Lyon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Toulouse 36%, draw 23%, Lyon 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.60.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Toulouse 1–1 Lyon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toulouse36%fair 2.75 · @2.84
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.55
Lyon41%fair 2.43 · @2.30
2.84Expected goals
1.37Toulouse xG
1.47Lyon xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–08%
0–26%
From our goals model: Toulouse 1.4 – 1.5 Lyon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lyon to win✓
41%
2.43
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.65
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lyon / FT Lyon✗
23%
4.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.54
–
Form
Toulouse – last 6
LWDLLL
15 Aug
vs Hamburger SV
1–2
L
31 Jul
vs Real Sociedad
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs Rodez
1–1
D
21 Apr
@ Lens
1–4
L
17 Apr
@ Lens
2–3
L
3 Apr
@ Paris Saint Germain
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Lyon – last 6
DWLLWL
18 Aug
@ Fenerbahçe
1–1
D
11 Aug
vs Sparta Praha
3–0
W
4 Aug
@ Sparta Praha
1–2
L
29 Jul
@ Real Betis
0–4
L
24 Jul
@ VfL Wolfsburg
2–0
W
18 Jul
@ Slavia Praha
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toulouse and Lyon.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Toulouse vs Lyon?
On our numbers Toulouse have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lyon 41%.
How many goals will there be in Toulouse vs Lyon?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our predicted score is Toulouse 1–1 Lyon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Toulouse vs Lyon?
Toulouse vs Lyon (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadium de Toulouse.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
