Eerste Divisie · Netherlands · Rat Verlegh StadionNAC Breda vs MVV prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: NAC Breda 2.7 – 1.2 MVV expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
NAC Breda are clear favourites at home with a 69% chance of winning, against 12% for MVV.
NAC Breda have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 2.3 per game. MVV have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 2.7 conceded.
We expect around 3.9 goals (2.7 for NAC Breda, 1.2 for MVV). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 3–1 (8%), 2–0 (8%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is better than our fair price of 1.52, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | NAC Breda to win ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.35 |
| Double chance | NAC Breda or draw ✓ | 88% | 1.13 | 1.08 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 90% | 1.11 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 75% | 1.34 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Half-time result | NAC Breda ahead at half-time ✓ | 53% | 1.87 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT NAC Breda / FT NAC Breda ✓ | 48% | 2.08 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.32 | – |
Form
NAC Breda – last 6
| 3 Oct | @ Vitesse | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs FC Eindhoven | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ De Graafschap | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Jong Utrecht | 2–3 | L |
| 4 Sep | @ Waalwijk | 2–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | @ Roda | 2–2 | D |
MVV – last 6
| 3 Oct | @ FC OSS | 1–4 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Helmond Sport | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | @ Waalwijk | 1–6 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Almere City FC | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Roda | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | @ Jong AZ | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between NAC Breda and MVV.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 14 | +29 | 35 |
| 2 |  VVV Venlo | 14 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Almere City FC | 14 | +16 | 28 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 14 | +5 | 25 |
| 5 |  Roda | 14 | +1 | 25 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 14 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 14 | +9 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Den Bosch | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 11 |  Waalwijk | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 |  De Graafschap | 13 | -10 | 15 |
| 16 |  FC OSS | 14 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 |  Helmond Sport | 14 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 |  Dordrecht | 14 | -16 | 12 |
| 19 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 |  FC Eindhoven | 14 | -13 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for NAC Breda vs MVV?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win NAC Breda vs MVV?
On our numbers NAC Breda have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 19% and MVV 12%.
How many goals will there be in NAC Breda vs MVV?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
When is NAC Breda vs MVV?
NAC Breda vs MVV (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.