Eerste Divisie · Netherlands · AFAS TrainingscomplexJong AZ vs Den Bosch prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Strong pick · fair odds 1.45 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Jong AZ to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Jong AZ 2.4 – 1.5 Den Bosch expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Jong AZ hold the edge on home soil with a 57% chance of winning, against 23% for Den Bosch.
Jong AZ have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.8 per game. Den Bosch have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 0.8 scored and 2.0 conceded. Jong AZ come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.9 goals (2.4 for Jong AZ, 1.5 for Den Bosch). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (7%), 3–1 (7%).
In their last 1 meeting, Jong AZ have won 0, Den Bosch have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.45. For a bigger price, Jong AZ to win at 1.95 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Jong AZ to win ✗ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 90% | 1.11 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 75% | 1.34 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Half-time result | Jong AZ ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Jong AZ / FT Jong AZ ✗ | 37% | 2.71 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.43 | – |
Form
Jong AZ – last 6
| 18 Sep | vs FC Volendam | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | @ Jong PSV U21 | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sep | @ Heracles | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Dordrecht | 6–3 | W |
| 31 Aug | vs Jong Utrecht | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | vs MVV | 1–2 | L |
Den Bosch – last 6
| 3 Oct | vs Dordrecht | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ De Graafschap | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Helmond Sport | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ FC Volendam | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Sep | @ Jong PSV U21 | 1–3 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Vitesse | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
| 23 Feb 2026 | Jong AZ v Den Bosch | 2–2 |
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 14 | +29 | 35 |
| 2 |  VVV Venlo | 14 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Almere City FC | 14 | +16 | 28 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 14 | +5 | 25 |
| 5 |  Roda | 14 | +1 | 25 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 14 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 14 | +9 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Den Bosch | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 11 |  Waalwijk | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 |  De Graafschap | 13 | -10 | 15 |
| 16 |  FC OSS | 14 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 |  Helmond Sport | 14 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 |  Dordrecht | 14 | -16 | 12 |
| 19 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 |  FC Eindhoven | 14 | -13 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
On our numbers Jong AZ have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Den Bosch 23%.
How many goals will there be in Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
When is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.