Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Den Bosch to win @ 1.70 – our chance 65% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDen Bosch to win ✓65% · @1.70
Double chanceDen Bosch or draw ✓88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.36
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.32
Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport preview and prediction
The match
The Eerste Divisie sees Den Bosch take on Helmond Sport on Friday 18 September, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Stadion de Vliert. Den Bosch are 3rd with 0 points from 0 games (in the top four), while Helmond Sport sit 7th on 0 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Den Bosch's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to FC Volendam 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Helmond Sport's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat Jong PSV U21 3–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Helmond Sport arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 2.7 for Den Bosch and 1.2 for Helmond Sport. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Den Bosch 65%, draw 24%, Helmond Sport 12%.
Safer route: Den Bosch or draw (88%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.36.
Value angle: Den Bosch to win at 1.70 – 65% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Den Bosch or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Den Bosch 2–1 Helmond Sport. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Den Bosch65%fair 1.55 · @1.70
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @4.00
Helmond Sport12%fair 8.45 · @4.00
3.92Expected goals
2.68Den Bosch xG
1.24Helmond Sport xG
66%Both score
75%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
3–18%
2–07%
1–17%
3–06%
2–25%
From our goals model: Den Bosch 2.7 – 1.2 Helmond Sport expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Den Bosch to win✓
65%
1.55
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Den Bosch or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
66%
1.51
1.36
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
–
Half-time result
Den Bosch ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Den Bosch / FT Den Bosch✓
46%
2.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.32
–
Form
Den Bosch – last 6
LLLWLD
13 Sep
@ FC Volendam
0–2
L
7 Sep
@ Jong PSV U21
1–3
L
28 Aug
vs Vitesse
1–4
L
21 Aug
vs FC Eindhoven
5–2
W
14 Aug
@ Heracles
2–3
L
8 Aug
vs Almere City FC
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Helmond Sport – last 6
WWLDLD
11 Sep
vs Jong PSV U21
3–1
W
4 Sep
vs VVV Venlo
4–2
W
28 Aug
@ Jong Ajax
2–3
L
21 Aug
vs Waalwijk
1–1
D
14 Aug
@ Roda
1–2
L
9 Aug
vs De Graafschap
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Den Bosch and Helmond Sport.
What is the prediction for Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
Our pick is Den Bosch or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
On our numbers Den Bosch have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Helmond Sport 12%.
How many goals will there be in Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
Our predicted score is Den Bosch 2–1 Helmond Sport, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion de Vliert.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
