Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
2
Value bet: Waalwijk to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultWaalwijk to win ✓56% · @1.95
Double chanceWaalwijk or draw ✓80% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗69% · @1.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.68
Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk preview and prediction
The match
Jong Ajax host Waalwijk in the Eerste Divisie on Friday 11 September, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Sportcomplex De Toekomst. Jong Ajax are 18th with 0 points from 0 games (in the bottom three), while Waalwijk sit 12th on 0 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Jong Ajax's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Almere City FC 1–0 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Waalwijk's last 5: WDDDD Most recently they beat NAC Breda 4–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Waalwijk arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 1.5 for Jong Ajax and 2.5 for Waalwijk. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 76% and both teams to score at 69%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Jong Ajax 20%, draw 23%, Waalwijk 56%.
Safer route: Waalwijk or draw (80%) at 1.30.
Both teams to score: yes (69%) at 1.40.
Value angle: Waalwijk to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Waalwijk or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.26, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Jong Ajax 1–2 Waalwijk. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Jong Ajax20%fair 4.89 · @3.30
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.60
Waalwijk56%fair 1.78 · @1.95
4.00Expected goals
1.52Jong Ajax xG
2.48Waalwijk xG
69%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–37%
1–17%
2–27%
0–26%
2–35%
From our goals model: Jong Ajax 1.5 – 2.5 Waalwijk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Waalwijk to win✓
56%
1.78
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Waalwijk or draw✓
80%
1.26
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Waalwijk ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Waalwijk / FT Waalwijk✗
38%
2.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.68
–
Form
Jong Ajax – last 6
WDWLLL
4 Sep
@ Almere City FC
1–0
W
31 Aug
@ Jong PSV U21
1–1
D
28 Aug
vs Helmond Sport
3–2
W
22 Aug
@ NAC Breda
2–3
L
17 Aug
vs Emmen
4–6
L
7 Aug
@ Dordrecht
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Waalwijk – last 6
WDDDDW
4 Sep
vs NAC Breda
4–2
W
28 Aug
vs Jong PSV U21
2–2
D
21 Aug
@ Helmond Sport
1–1
D
14 Aug
vs Dordrecht
2–2
D
7 Aug
@ Vitesse
1–1
D
2 Aug
vs Kifisia
3–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Jong Ajax and Waalwijk.
Our pick is Waalwijk or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk?
On our numbers Jong Ajax have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Waalwijk 56%.
How many goals will there be in Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk?
Our predicted score is Jong Ajax 1–2 Waalwijk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk?
Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
