The Eerste Divisie sees Heracles take on Jong AZ on Friday 11 September, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Asito Stadium. Heracles are 16th with 0 points from 0 games (in the bottom half), while Jong AZ sit 19th on 0 points (in the bottom three). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Heracles's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat De Graafschap 5–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 4.0 per game.
Jong AZ's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Dordrecht 6–3 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Heracles arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 5.0 goals: 3.5 for Heracles and 1.5 for Jong AZ. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score in 68% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Heracles 72%, draw 19%, Jong AZ 9%.
Both teams to score: yes (68%) at 1.40.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Heracles to win – a 72% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Heracles 3–1 Jong AZ. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Heracles72%fair 1.39 · @1.36
Draw19%fair 5.35 · @5.00
Jong AZ9%fair 10.56 · @6.00
5.00Expected goals
3.50Heracles xG
1.50Jong AZ xG
68%Both score
88%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–17%
4–16%
2–16%
3–25%
3–05%
4–25%
From our goals model: Heracles 3.5 – 1.5 Jong AZ expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Heracles to win✓
72%
1.39
1.36
Double chance
Heracles or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Half-time result
Heracles ahead at half-time✗
58%
1.71
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Heracles / FT Heracles✗
53%
1.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
7%
13.85
–
Form
Heracles – last 6
WWWWWL
4 Sep
vs De Graafschap
5–0
W
30 Aug
@ FC Eindhoven
3–1
W
24 Aug
@ Jong Utrecht
6–1
W
14 Aug
vs Den Bosch
3–2
W
7 Aug
@ VVV Venlo
4–3
W
24 Jul
vs Excelsior
3–5
L
4.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Jong AZ – last 6
WWLLWL
5 Sep
@ Dordrecht
6–3
W
31 Aug
vs Jong Utrecht
2–1
W
28 Aug
vs MVV
1–2
L
21 Aug
@ Emmen
1–3
L
17 Aug
@ De Graafschap
5–2
W
10 Aug
vs FC Eindhoven
0–1
L
2.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Heracles and Jong AZ.
Our pick is Heracles to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Heracles vs Jong AZ?
On our numbers Heracles have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Jong AZ 9%.
How many goals will there be in Heracles vs Jong AZ?
We expect about 5.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Heracles vs Jong AZ?
Our predicted score is Heracles 3–1 Jong AZ, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.0 goals in total.
When is Heracles vs Jong AZ?
Heracles vs Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Asito Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
