Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification · Africa · Orlando Stadium

South Africa

WWWLW
Fri 13 Nov 2026

Kenya

LDWDW

South Africa vs Kenya prediction & analysis

74%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.21

8/10Rating
1.21Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultSouth Africa to win68% · @1.19
Double chanceSouth Africa or draw85% · fair 1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score50% · @1.36
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–014% · fair 7.26

Win chances

South Africa68%fair 1.47 · @1.19
Draw17%fair 5.77 · @5.03
Kenya15%fair 6.73 · @13.90
2.64Expected goals
1.92South Africa xG
0.71Kenya xG
50%Both score
48%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–07%

From our goals model: South Africa 1.9 – 0.7 Kenya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

South Africa are clear favourites at home with a 68% chance of winning, against 15% for Kenya.

South Africa have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.5 per game. Kenya have 8 points from their last 5 (2W 2D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.6 conceded.

We expect around 2.6 goals (1.9 for South Africa, 0.7 for Kenya). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%).

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.21 is close to our fair price of 1.35.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSouth Africa to win68%1.471.19
Double chanceSouth Africa or draw85%1.17–
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score50%1.991.36
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals73%1.371.27
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals52%1.911.70
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals74%1.351.21
Half-time resultSouth Africa ahead at half-time47%2.14–
Half-time / full-timeHT South Africa / FT South Africa42%2.37–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–014%7.26–

Form

South Africa – last 6

WWWLWD
4 Oct@ Egypt1–0W
30 Sep@ Eritrea5–0W
26 Sepvs Guinea2–1W
28 Junvs Canada0–1L
25 Junvs South Korea1–0W
18 Jun@ Czechia1–1D
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Kenya – last 5

LDWDW
1 Oct@ Guinea0–1L
26 Sepvs Eritrea1–1D
7 Junvs Lesotho4–0W
4 Jun@ Lesotho1–1D
30 Mar@ Grenada3–0W
1.8Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between South Africa and Kenya.

More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions

Comoros Congo 492229 U2.5Under 2.5 goals 63%@1.49 Mozambique Ethiopia 632412 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 64%@1.43 Zambia Burundi 632512 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.38 Burkina Faso Mauritania 632413 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 68%@1.38 Cape Verde Islands Liberia 652114 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 72%@1.33 Gabon Lesotho 691912 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25 Nigeria Tanzania 76177 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.51 Tunisia Libya 72217 1Tunisia to win 72%@1.29

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for South Africa vs Kenya?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.

Who will win South Africa vs Kenya?

On our numbers South Africa have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Kenya 15%.

How many goals will there be in South Africa vs Kenya?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

When is South Africa vs Kenya?

South Africa vs Kenya (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Orlando Stadium.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.