Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification · Africa

Mozambique

WDL
Fri 13 Nov 2026

Ethiopia

LLDWW

Mozambique vs Ethiopia prediction & analysis

64%
Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.43

6/10Rating
1.43Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultMozambique to win63% · @1.44
Double chanceMozambique or draw88% · @1.03
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score52% · @1.42
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–018% · fair 5.43

Win chances

Mozambique63%fair 1.58 · @1.44
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.60
Ethiopia12%fair 8.19 · @7.17
2.17Expected goals
1.62Mozambique xG
0.55Ethiopia xG
48%Both score
37%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%

From our goals model: Mozambique 1.6 – 0.6 Ethiopia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Mozambique are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 12% for Ethiopia.

Mozambique have taken 4 points from their last 3 matches (1W 1D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 per game. Ethiopia have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded.

We expect around 2.2 goals (1.6 for Mozambique, 0.6 for Ethiopia). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (18%), 2–0 (15%), 0–0 (11%).

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.43 is close to our fair price of 1.56.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMozambique to win63%1.581.44
Double chanceMozambique or draw88%1.141.03
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score52%1.921.42
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals64%1.561.43
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals63%1.591.46
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals82%1.21–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time45%2.20–
Half-time / full-timeHT Mozambique / FT Mozambique39%2.55–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–018%5.43–

Form

Mozambique – last 3

WDL
29 Sepvs Sudan4–1W
25 Sepvs Senegal1–1D
9 Jun@ Indonesia0–1L
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Ethiopia – last 6

LLDWWW
29 Sepvs Senegal0–1L
25 Sep@ Sudan0–1L
9 Junvs Malawi1–1D
6 Junvs Malawi1–0W
31 Marvs Sao Tome and Principe1–0W
27 Mar@ Sao Tome and Principe3–0W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Mozambique and Ethiopia.

More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions

Comoros Congo 492229 U2.5Under 2.5 goals 63%@1.49 Zambia Burundi 632512 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.38 Burkina Faso Mauritania 632413 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 68%@1.38 Cape Verde Islands Liberia 652114 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 72%@1.33 Gabon Lesotho 691912 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25 Nigeria Tanzania 76177 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.51 South Africa Kenya 681715 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.21 Tunisia Libya 72217 1Tunisia to win 72%@1.29

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.43.

Who will win Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

On our numbers Mozambique have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ethiopia 12%.

How many goals will there be in Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.

When is Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

Mozambique vs Ethiopia (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.