Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification · Africa · Stade du 26 Mars

Mali

WWD
Fri 13 Nov 2026

Rwanda

WWWW

Mali vs Rwanda prediction & analysis

74%
Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.28

8/10Rating
1.28Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultMali to win69% · @1.17
Double chanceMali or draw87% · fair 1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score54% · @1.31
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–013% · fair 7.60

Win chances

Mali69%fair 1.45 · @1.17
Draw18%fair 5.64 · @5.23
Rwanda13%fair 7.52 · @16.00
2.75Expected goals
2.03Mali xG
0.72Rwanda xG
46%Both score
49%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

2–013%
1–013%
2–19%
1–19%
3–09%
3–16%

From our goals model: Mali 2.0 – 0.7 Rwanda expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Mali are clear favourites at home with a 69% chance of winning, against 13% for Rwanda.

Mali have taken 7 points from their last 3 matches (2W 1D 0L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.3 per game. Rwanda have 12 points from their last 4 (4W 0D 0L), averaging 2.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. Rwanda come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.7 goals (2.0 for Mali, 0.7 for Rwanda). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 46%. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13%), 1–0 (13%), 2–1 (9%).

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.36.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMali to win69%1.451.17
Double chanceMali or draw87%1.15–
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score54%1.861.31
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals74%1.361.28
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals51%1.951.68
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals73%1.371.20
Half-time resultMali ahead at half-time48%2.07–
Half-time / full-timeHT Mali / FT Mali44%2.27–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–013%7.60–

Form

Mali – last 3

WWD
29 Sep@ Liberia1–0W
25 Sepvs Cape Verde Islands3–1W
31 Mar@ Russia0–0D
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Rwanda – last 4

WWWW
29 Sep@ Cape Verde Islands2–1W
25 Sepvs Liberia3–1W
30 Marvs Estonia2–0W
27 Marvs Grenada4–0W
2.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Mali and Rwanda.

More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions

Comoros Congo 492229 U2.5Under 2.5 goals 63%@1.49 Mozambique Ethiopia 632412 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 64%@1.43 Zambia Burundi 632512 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.38 Burkina Faso Mauritania 632413 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 68%@1.38 Cape Verde Islands Liberia 652114 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 72%@1.33 Gabon Lesotho 691912 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25 Nigeria Tanzania 76177 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.51 South Africa Kenya 681715 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.21

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Mali vs Rwanda?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Mali vs Rwanda?

On our numbers Mali have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Rwanda 13%.

How many goals will there be in Mali vs Rwanda?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.

When is Mali vs Rwanda?

Mali vs Rwanda (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade du 26 Mars.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.