Madagascar
Guinea-Bissau
Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.41
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.09 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Madagascar 0.9 – 1.5 Guinea-Bissau expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Guinea-Bissau shade it despite being away from home – 54% to win, against 24% for Madagascar.
Madagascar have taken 2 points from their last 4 matches (0W 2D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.0 per game. Guinea-Bissau have 7 points from their last 3 (2W 1D 0L), averaging 2.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. Guinea-Bissau come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.4 goals (0.9 for Madagascar, 1.5 for Guinea-Bissau). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14%), 1–1 (12%), 0–2 (11%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.41 is close to our fair price of 1.50. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.09 is our value angle (52% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Guinea-Bissau to win | 54% | 1.84 | 2.01 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 78% | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 52% | 1.91 | 2.09 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 66% | 1.50 | 1.41 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 | 1.47 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 45% | 2.23 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Guinea-Bissau / FT Guinea-Bissau | 31% | 3.20 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 | 14% | 7.03 | – |
Form
Madagascar – last 4
| 29 Sep | vs Tanzania | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Sep | @ Nigeria | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Jun | @ Morocco | 0–4 | L |
| 31 Mar | @ Equatorial Guinea | 1–1 | D |
Guinea-Bissau – last 3
| 29 Sep | vs Nigeria | 3–0 | W |
| 25 Sep | @ Tanzania | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | @ Burkina Faso | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.41.
Who will win Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?
On our numbers Madagascar have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Guinea-Bissau 54%.
How many goals will there be in Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?
Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at George V Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.