Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 51% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMalawi to win ✓66% · @1.65
Double chanceMalawi or draw ✓88% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.54
Malawi vs South Sudan preview and prediction
The match
The Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification sees Malawi take on South Sudan on Friday 25 September, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Bingu National Stadium. Malawi are 3rd with 4 points from 6 games, while South Sudan sit 4th on 3 points. Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Malawi and 0.6 for South Sudan. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 51%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Malawi 66%, draw 22%, South Sudan 12%.
Safer route: Malawi or draw (88%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.20.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.20 – 51% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Malawi to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.65, above our fair price of 1.50, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Malawi 1–0 South Sudan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Malawi66%fair 1.50 · @1.65
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.20
South Sudan12%fair 8.51 · @5.00
2.50Expected goals
1.86Malawi xG
0.64South Sudan xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Malawi 1.9 – 0.6 South Sudan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Malawi to win✓
66%
1.50
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Malawi or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
2.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Malawi ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Malawi / FT Malawi✓
43%
2.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.54
–
Form
Malawi – last 2
DL
9 Jun
@ Ethiopia
1–1
D
6 Jun
@ Ethiopia
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
South Sudan – last 2
LW
29 Mar
vs Djibouti
0–1
L
26 Mar
@ Djibouti
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Malawi and South Sudan.
Our pick is Malawi to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Malawi vs South Sudan?
On our numbers Malawi have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and South Sudan 12%.
How many goals will there be in Malawi vs South Sudan?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Malawi vs South Sudan?
Our predicted score is Malawi 1–0 South Sudan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Malawi vs South Sudan?
Malawi vs South Sudan (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Friday 25 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Bingu National Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mozambique1
Senegal1
Tanzania0
Guinea-Bissau2
Niger2
Lesotho1
Gambia2
Somalia1
Nigeria2
Madagascar1
Rwanda3
Liberia1
Sudan1
Ethiopia0
Togo1
Burundi0