Togo vs Burundi prediction & analysis
Togo to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 57% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Togo 2.7 – 1.3 Burundi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Togo are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 15% for Burundi.
Togo have taken 8 points from their last 4 matches (2W 2D 0L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 per game. Burundi have 6 points from their last 2 (2W 0D 0L), averaging 4.0 scored and 0.0 conceded. Burundi come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 4.0 goals (2.7 for Togo, 1.3 for Burundi). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 3–1 (8%), 1–1 (7%).
Our pick is Togo to win at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.55 is close to our fair price of 1.59. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.25 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Togo to win ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.55 |
| Double chance | Togo or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 57% | 1.75 | 2.25 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 91% | 1.10 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 76% | 1.31 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✗ | 57% | 1.77 | – |
| Half-time result | Togo ahead at half-time ✓ | 50% | 2.00 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Togo / FT Togo ✓ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.52 | – |
Form
Togo – last 4
| 9 Jun | vs Benin | 5–1 | W |
| 5 Jun | @ Central African Republic | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Mar | @ Niger | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Mar | @ Guinea | 2–2 | D |
Burundi – last 2
| 31 Mar | vs Chad | 4–0 | W |
| 27 Mar | @ Chad | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Togo and Burundi.
Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Algeria | 6 | +14 | 16 |
| 2 |  Equatorial Guinea | 6 | -3 | 8 |
| 3 |  Togo | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 4 |  Liberia | 6 | -8 | 4 |
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Ethiopia0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Togo vs Burundi?
Our pick is Togo to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Togo vs Burundi?
On our numbers Togo have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Burundi 15%.
How many goals will there be in Togo vs Burundi?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Togo vs Burundi?
Togo vs Burundi (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Friday 25 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade de Kegue.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.