Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Sweden to win @ 1.90 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSweden to win ✓60% · @1.90
Double chanceSweden or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.63
Sweden vs Tunisia preview and prediction
The match
The World Cup sees Sweden take on Tunisia on Monday 15 June, kicking off at 03:00 (WAT) at Estadio BBVA.
Form guide
Sweden's last 4: DLWW Most recently they drew with Greece 2–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Tunisia's last 4: LLDW Most recently they lost to Belgium 0–5 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sweden arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Sweden and 0.7 for Tunisia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sweden 60%, draw 22%, Tunisia 18%.
Safer route: Sweden or draw (82%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Sweden to win at 1.90 – 60% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sweden or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Sweden 1–0 Tunisia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sweden60%fair 1.66 · @1.90
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.30
Tunisia18%fair 5.63 · @4.20
2.39Expected goals
1.65Sweden xG
0.74Tunisia xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Sweden 1.7 – 0.7 Tunisia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sweden to win✓
60%
1.66
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Sweden or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sweden / FT Sweden✓
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.63
–
Form
Sweden – last 4
DLWW
4 Jun
vs Greece
2–2
D
1 Jun
@ Norway
1–3
L
31 Mar
vs Poland
3–2
W
26 Mar
@ Ukraine
3–1
W
2.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Tunisia – last 4
LLDW
6 Jun
@ Belgium
0–5
L
1 Jun
@ Austria
0–1
L
1 Apr
@ Canada
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Haiti
1–0
W
0.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sweden and Tunisia.
Our pick is Sweden or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sweden vs Tunisia?
On our numbers Sweden have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Tunisia 18%.
How many goals will there be in Sweden vs Tunisia?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sweden vs Tunisia?
Our predicted score is Sweden 1–0 Tunisia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sweden vs Tunisia?
Sweden vs Tunisia (World Cup) kicks off on Monday 15 June 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio BBVA.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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