Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 56% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVasco DA Gama to win ✓58% · @1.90
Double chanceVasco DA Gama or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.44
Paysandu vs Vasco DA Gama preview and prediction
The match
Paysandu host Vasco DA Gama in the Copa Do Brasil on Wednesday 22 April, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Mangueirão.
Form guide
Paysandu's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Independência 2–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Vasco DA Gama's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to A. Italiano 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Paysandu arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.2 for Paysandu and 2.3 for Vasco DA Gama. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 56% and both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paysandu 17%, draw 25%, Vasco DA Gama 58%.
Safer route: Vasco DA Gama or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 2.10 – 56% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Vasco DA Gama or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Paysandu 1–2 Vasco DA Gama. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paysandu17%fair 5.76 · @4.10
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.35
Vasco DA Gama58%fair 1.73 · @1.90
3.49Expected goals
1.24Paysandu xG
2.26Vasco DA Gama xG
52%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–18%
0–28%
1–37%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Paysandu 1.2 – 2.3 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vasco DA Gama to win✓
58%
1.73
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Vasco DA Gama or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.36 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.77
2.10 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
1.25
Half-time result
Vasco DA Gama ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.44
–
Form
Paysandu – last 6
WLWLWW
15 Apr
vs Independência
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ Nacional AM
0–7
L
5 Apr
@ Volta Redonda
1–0
W
1 Apr
@ Guaporé
0–1
L
18 Mar
@ Portuguesa
3–2
W
12 Mar
vs Portuguesa RJ
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
LDLDWD
15 Apr
vs A. Italiano
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Barracas Central
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Botafogo
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ Coritiba
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs Fluminense
3–2
W
16 Mar
@ Cruzeiro
3–3
D
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paysandu and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Paysandu vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Vasco DA Gama or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Paysandu vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Paysandu have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Vasco DA Gama 58%.
How many goals will there be in Paysandu vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paysandu vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Paysandu 1–2 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Paysandu vs Vasco DA Gama?
Paysandu vs Vasco DA Gama (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Mangueirão.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Barra0
Corinthians1
Goias2
Cruzeiro2
Bahia1
Remo3
Santos0
Coritiba0