Value bet: Santos to win @ 1.70 – our chance 62% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSantos to win ✗62% · @1.70
Double chanceSantos or draw ✓85% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.76
Santos vs Coritiba preview and prediction
The match
Coritiba travel to Estádio Urbano Caldeira in the Copa Do Brasil on Wednesday 22 April (23:30 WAT) to face Santos.
Form guide
Santos's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with Deportivo Recoleta 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Coritiba's last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with Fluminense 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.6 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Santos and 0.7 for Coritiba. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santos 62%, draw 23%, Coritiba 15%.
Safer route: Santos or draw (85%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Santos to win at 1.70 – 62% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Santos 1–0 Coritiba. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santos62%fair 1.60 · @1.70
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.50
Coritiba15%fair 6.89 · @5.00
2.47Expected goals
1.76Santos xG
0.71Coritiba xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Santos 1.8 – 0.7 Coritiba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santos to win✗
62%
1.60
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Santos or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Santos ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santos / FT Santos✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.76
–
Form
Santos – last 6
DWLWLD
15 Apr
vs Deportivo Recoleta
1–1
D
12 Apr
vs Atletico-MG
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
2 Apr
vs Remo
2–0
W
19 Mar
vs Internacional
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Coritiba – last 5
DDWWL
5 Apr
vs Fluminense
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–1
D
19 Mar
@ Mirassol
1–0
W
12 Mar
@ Corinthians
2–0
W
25 Feb
vs Sao Paulo
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santos and Coritiba.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Santos vs Coritiba?
On our numbers Santos have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Coritiba 15%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Coritiba?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Coritiba?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–0 Coritiba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Santos vs Coritiba?
Santos vs Coritiba (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paysandu0
Vasco DA Gama2
Barra0
Corinthians1
Goias2
Cruzeiro2
Bahia1
Remo3