Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.33Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.90 – our chance 61% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCorinthians to win ✓69% · @1.22
Double chanceCorinthians or draw ✓89% · @1.02
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓61% · @1.40
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓24% · fair 4.25
Corinthians vs Barra preview and prediction
The match
Barra travel to Neo Química Arena in the Copa Do Brasil on Thursday 14 May (23:30 WAT) to face Corinthians.
Form guide
Corinthians's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Santa Fe 1–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Barra's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Figueirense 3–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 April 2026, finished Barra 0–1 Corinthians.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.5 for Corinthians and 0.4 for Barra. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Corinthians 69%, draw 20%, Barra 11%.
Both teams to score: no (61%) at 1.40.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.90 – 61% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.33, above our fair price of 1.26, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Corinthians 1–0 Barra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Corinthians69%fair 1.45 · @1.22
Draw20%fair 5.00 · @5.60
Barra11%fair 8.98 · @14.50
1.85Expected goals
1.50Corinthians xG
0.35Barra xG
39%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–024%
2–018%
0–016%
3–09%
1–18%
2–16%
From our goals model: Corinthians 1.5 – 0.4 Barra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Corinthians vs Barra?
On our numbers Corinthians have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Barra 11%.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Barra?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Barra?
Our predicted score is Corinthians 1–0 Barra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Corinthians vs Barra?
Corinthians vs Barra (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Neo Química Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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