Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Santos to win @ 3.00 – our chance 45% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +34%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSantos to win ✓45% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.02
Coritiba vs Santos preview and prediction
The match
The Copa Do Brasil sees Coritiba take on Santos on Wednesday 13 May, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT) at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
Form guide
Coritiba's last 5: DDDWW Most recently they drew with Santos 0–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Santos's last 5: DDDDW Most recently they drew with Deportivo Recoleta 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 April 2026, finished Santos 0–0 Coritiba.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.0 for Coritiba and 1.3 for Santos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 48%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Coritiba 31%, draw 24%, Santos 45%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Santos to win at 3.00 – 45% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Coritiba 1–1 Santos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Coritiba31%fair 3.20 · @2.55
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @2.90
Santos45%fair 2.24 · @3.00
2.36Expected goals
1.04Coritiba xG
1.32Santos xG
48%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Coritiba 1.0 – 1.3 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Coritiba vs Santos?
On our numbers Coritiba have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Santos 45%.
How many goals will there be in Coritiba vs Santos?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Santos?
Our predicted score is Coritiba 1–1 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Coritiba vs Santos?
Coritiba vs Santos (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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