Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCorinthians to win ✗39% · @2.54
Double chanceEither team to win ✗71% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.55
Santa Fe vs Corinthians preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Libertadores sees Santa Fe take on Corinthians on Thursday 7 May, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin. Santa Fe are 3rd with 8 points from 6 games, while Corinthians sit 1st on 11 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Santa Fe's last 5: LWLDD Most recently they lost to Platense 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Corinthians's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Mirassol 1–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Corinthians arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 16 April 2026, finished Corinthians 2–0 Santa Fe.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Santa Fe and 1.0 for Corinthians. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santa Fe 32%, draw 29%, Corinthians 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 53% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Santa Fe 1–1 Corinthians. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santa Fe32%fair 3.13 · @2.92
Draw29%fair 3.43 · @3.00
Corinthians39%fair 2.57 · @2.54
2.15Expected goals
1.15Santa Fe xG
1.00Corinthians xG
53%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–012%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Santa Fe 1.1 – 1.0 Corinthians expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Santa Fe vs Corinthians?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Santa Fe vs Corinthians?
On our numbers Santa Fe have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Corinthians 39%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Fe vs Corinthians?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Fe vs Corinthians?
Our predicted score is Santa Fe 1–1 Corinthians, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Santa Fe vs Corinthians?
Santa Fe vs Corinthians (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 7 May 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Independ. Rivadavia1
Fluminense1
Deportes Tolima3
Club Nacional0
U. Catolica0
Cruzeiro0
Mirassol2
LDU de Quito0