Value bet: Club Nacional to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportes Tolima to win ✓42% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.99
Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional preview and prediction
The match
Deportes Tolima host Club Nacional in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thursday 7 May, with kick-off at 03:00 (WAT) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Deportes Tolima are 2nd with 8 points from 6 games, while Club Nacional sit 3rd on 8 points. Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Deportes Tolima's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Coquimbo Unido 3–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Club Nacional's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to Albion FC 2–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 14 April 2026, finished Club Nacional 3–1 Deportes Tolima.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Deportes Tolima and 1.2 for Club Nacional. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Deportes Tolima 42%, draw 26%, Club Nacional 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Club Nacional to win at 3.50 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Deportes Tolima 1–1 Club Nacional. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportes Tolima42%fair 2.37 · @2.12
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @3.20
Club Nacional32%fair 3.11 · @3.50
2.41Expected goals
1.24Deportes Tolima xG
1.17Club Nacional xG
57%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.2 – 1.2 Club Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional?
On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Club Nacional 32%.
How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional?
Our predicted score is Deportes Tolima 1–1 Club Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional?
Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 7 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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