Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 52% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMirassol to win ✓53% · @1.54
Double chanceMirassol or draw ✓78% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.41
Mirassol vs LDU de Quito preview and prediction
The match
Mirassol host LDU de Quito in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thursday 7 May, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. Mirassol are 2nd with 12 points from 6 games, while LDU de Quito sit 1st on 12 points. Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mirassol's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Corinthians 2–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
LDU de Quito's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to Lanus 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mirassol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 April 2026, finished LDU de Quito 2–0 Mirassol.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.2 for Mirassol and 0.8 for LDU de Quito. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mirassol 53%, draw 25%, LDU de Quito 22%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.05 – 52% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Mirassol 1–0 LDU de Quito. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mirassol53%fair 1.87 · @1.54
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.90
LDU de Quito22%fair 4.55 · @6.20
2.04Expected goals
1.20Mirassol xG
0.84LDU de Quito xG
52%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
1–113%
0–013%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Mirassol 1.2 – 0.8 LDU de Quito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 25% and LDU de Quito 22%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 1–0 LDU de Quito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
Mirassol vs LDU de Quito (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 7 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Independ. Rivadavia1
Fluminense1
Santa Fe1
Corinthians1
Deportes Tolima3
Club Nacional0
U. Catolica0
Cruzeiro0