Value bet: Rosario Central to win @ 1.64 – our chance 65% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRosario Central to win ✓65% · @1.64
Double chanceRosario Central or draw ✓84% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.40
UCV vs Rosario Central preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Libertadores sees UCV take on Rosario Central on Wednesday 29 April, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV. UCV are 3rd with 9 points from 6 games, while Rosario Central sit 2nd on 13 points.
Form guide
UCV's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Deportivo Tachira FC 1–1 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Rosario Central's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Rosario Central arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.7 for UCV and 1.7 for Rosario Central. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: UCV 16%, draw 19%, Rosario Central 65%.
Safer route: Rosario Central or draw (84%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Rosario Central to win at 1.64 – 65% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: UCV 0–1 Rosario Central. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UCV16%fair 6.30 · @5.40
Draw19%fair 5.25 · @3.65
Rosario Central65%fair 1.54 · @1.64
2.41Expected goals
0.67UCV xG
1.74Rosario Central xG
50%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–214%
1–110%
1–29%
0–09%
0–38%
From our goals model: UCV 0.7 – 1.7 Rosario Central expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rosario Central to win✓
65%
1.54
1.64 ▲
Double chance
Rosario Central or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Half-time result
Rosario Central ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rosario Central / FT Rosario Central✓
39%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.40
–
Form
UCV – last 5
DLWLW
20 Apr
vs Deportivo Tachira FC
1–1
D
16 Apr
@ Independiente del Valle
1–3
L
9 Apr
vs Libertad Asuncion
3–1
W
17 Mar
@ Puerto Cabello
0–3
L
22 Feb
@ Caracas FC
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Rosario Central – last 6
WWWDWL
24 Apr
@ Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2–1
W
20 Apr
vs Sarmiento Junin
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Libertad Asuncion
1–0
W
9 Apr
vs Independiente del Valle
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Atletico Tucuman
2–1
W
23 Mar
@ Independ. Rivadavia
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UCV and Rosario Central.
What is the prediction for UCV vs Rosario Central?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win UCV vs Rosario Central?
On our numbers UCV have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Rosario Central 65%.
How many goals will there be in UCV vs Rosario Central?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCV vs Rosario Central?
Our predicted score is UCV 0–1 Rosario Central, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is UCV vs Rosario Central?
UCV vs Rosario Central (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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