Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Boca Juniors to win @ 3.30 – our chance 38% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBoca Juniors to win ✗38% · @3.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.96
Cruzeiro vs Boca Juniors preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Libertadores sees Cruzeiro take on Boca Juniors on Wednesday 29 April, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Governador Magalhães Pinto. Cruzeiro are 2nd with 11 points from 6 games, while Boca Juniors sit 3rd on 7 points.
Form guide
Cruzeiro's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Goias 2–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Boca Juniors's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Defensa Y Justicia 4–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Boca Juniors arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Cruzeiro and 1.2 for Boca Juniors. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Boca Juniors to win at 3.30 – 38% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Cruzeiro 1–1 Boca Juniors. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cruzeiro36%fair 2.79 · @2.35
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @2.92
Boca Juniors38%fair 2.61 · @3.30
2.39Expected goals
1.17Cruzeiro xG
1.22Boca Juniors xG
57%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Cruzeiro 1.2 – 1.2 Boca Juniors expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Boca Juniors to win✗
38%
2.61
3.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Boca Juniors / FT Boca Juniors✗
21%
4.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.96
–
Form
Cruzeiro – last 6
DWLWWL
22 Apr
@ Goias
2–2
D
19 Apr
vs Gremio
2–0
W
15 Apr
vs U. Catolica
1–2
L
8 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–0
W
2 Apr
vs Vitoria
3–0
W
18 Mar
@ Atletico Paranaense
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Boca Juniors – last 6
WWDWWW
24 Apr
@ Defensa Y Justicia
4–0
W
15 Apr
vs Barcelona SC
3–0
W
11 Apr
vs Independiente
1–1
D
8 Apr
@ U. Catolica
2–1
W
3 Apr
@ Talleres Cordoba
1–0
W
23 Mar
vs Instituto Cordoba
2–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cruzeiro and Boca Juniors.
What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs Boca Juniors?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Boca Juniors?
On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Boca Juniors 38%.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Boca Juniors?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Boca Juniors?
Our predicted score is Cruzeiro 1–1 Boca Juniors, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Cruzeiro vs Boca Juniors?
Cruzeiro vs Boca Juniors (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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