Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 – our chance 54% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMirassol to win ✓72% · @1.24
Double chanceMirassol or draw ✓93% · @1.04
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.73
Mirassol vs Always Ready preview and prediction
The match
Mirassol host Always Ready in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Wednesday 29 April, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. Mirassol are 2nd with 12 points from 6 games, while Always Ready sit 4th on 3 points.
Form guide
Mirassol's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Sao Paulo 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Always Ready's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat Guabirá 2–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Always Ready arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.7 for Mirassol and 0.4 for Always Ready. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 54% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.20 – 54% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.48, above our fair price of 1.36, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mirassol 1–0 Always Ready. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mirassol72%fair 1.39 · @1.24
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @5.70
Always Ready7%fair 13.46 · @11.50
2.11Expected goals
1.75Mirassol xG
0.37Always Ready xG
45%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
2–018%
0–012%
3–011%
1–18%
2–17%
From our goals model: Mirassol 1.7 – 0.4 Always Ready expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mirassol to win✓
72%
1.39
1.24
Double chance
Mirassol or draw✓
93%
1.08
1.04
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
2.20 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.48 ▲
Half-time result
Mirassol ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mirassol / FT Mirassol✓
46%
2.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.73
–
Form
Mirassol – last 6
LDWLWL
26 Apr
@ Sao Paulo
0–1
L
23 Apr
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
19 Apr
@ Internacional
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ LDU de Quito
0–2
L
8 Apr
vs Lanus
1–0
W
6 Apr
vs RB Bragantino
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Always Ready – last 6
WWLDLW
26 Apr
@ Guabirá
2–1
W
22 Apr
vs Oriente Petrolero
1–0
W
16 Apr
@ Lanus
0–1
L
12 Apr
@ Aurora
1–1
D
8 Apr
vs LDU de Quito
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs Bolívar
3–2
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mirassol and Always Ready.
What is the prediction for Mirassol vs Always Ready?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Mirassol vs Always Ready?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Always Ready 7%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Always Ready?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Always Ready?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 1–0 Always Ready, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs Always Ready?
Mirassol vs Always Ready (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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