Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 50% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalmeiras to win ✓76% · @1.18
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓91% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.25
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 11.83
Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Libertadores sees Palmeiras take on Sporting Cristal on Thursday 16 April, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Allianz Parque. Palmeiras are 2nd with 11 points from 6 games, while Sporting Cristal sit 3rd on 6 points.
Form guide
Palmeiras's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Junior 1–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Sporting Cristal's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Cerro Porteno 1–0 at home. They average 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.2 for Palmeiras and 0.5 for Sporting Cristal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 50%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 50% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.55, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Palmeiras 2–0 Sporting Cristal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Palmeiras76%fair 1.32 · @1.18
Draw15%fair 6.52 · @7.40
Sporting Cristal9%fair 11.53 · @11.50
2.71Expected goals
2.17Palmeiras xG
0.54Sporting Cristal xG
50%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–016%
1–014%
3–011%
2–18%
1–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 2.2 – 0.5 Sporting Cristal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✓
76%
1.32
1.18
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw✓
91%
1.09
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.62
Half-time result
Palmeiras ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✗
50%
2.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
11.83
–
Form
Palmeiras – last 6
DWWWWL
9 Apr
@ Junior
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Bahia
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs Gremio
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Sao Paulo
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Botafogo
2–1
W
12 Mar
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sporting Cristal – last 5
WLWWD
9 Apr
vs Cerro Porteno
1–0
W
3 Apr
vs UCV Moquegua
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Sport Boys
3–0
W
4 Mar
@ Carabobo FC
1–0
W
18 Feb
@ 2 de Mayo
2–2
D
1.6Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palmeiras and Sporting Cristal.
What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 76% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Sporting Cristal 9%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 2–0 Sporting Cristal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?
Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Parque.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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