Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.65 – our chance 70% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFluminense to win ✗68% · @1.64
Double chanceFluminense or draw ✗89% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗60% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗70% · @1.65
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗29% · fair 3.46
Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia preview and prediction
The match
Independ. Rivadavia travel to Estádio do Maracanã in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thursday 16 April (01:30 WAT) to face Fluminense. Fluminense are 2nd with 8 points from 6 games, while Independ. Rivadavia sit 1st on 16 points.
Form guide
Fluminense's last 5: DDWLW Most recently they drew with Deportivo La Guaira 0–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Independ. Rivadavia's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Bolívar 1–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.4 goals: 1.2 for Fluminense and 0.2 for Independ. Rivadavia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 – 70% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Fluminense 1–0 Independ. Rivadavia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fluminense68%fair 1.48 · @1.64
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.65
Independ. Rivadavia11%fair 9.15 · @5.40
1.45Expected goals
1.23Fluminense xG
0.22Independ. Rivadavia xG
40%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–029%
0–024%
2–018%
3–07%
1–16%
0–15%
From our goals model: Fluminense 1.2 – 0.2 Independ. Rivadavia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fluminense to win✗
68%
1.48
1.64 ▲
Double chance
Fluminense or draw✗
89%
1.12
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.65 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
56%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fluminense / FT Fluminense✗
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
29%
3.46
–
Form
Fluminense – last 6
DDWLWW
7 Apr
@ Deportivo La Guaira
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Coritiba
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Corinthians
3–1
W
19 Mar
@ Vasco DA Gama
2–3
L
15 Mar
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–2
W
12 Mar
@ remo
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independ. Rivadavia – last 6
WWWWLD
7 Apr
vs Bolívar
1–0
W
2 Apr
@ Tigre
2–0
W
23 Mar
vs Rosario Central
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Gimnasia L.P.
3–2
W
12 Mar
vs Barracas Central
1–2
L
3 Mar
vs River Plate
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fluminense and Independ. Rivadavia.
What is the prediction for Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia?
On our numbers Fluminense have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Independ. Rivadavia 11%.
How many goals will there be in Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia?
We expect about 1.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia?
Our predicted score is Fluminense 1–0 Independ. Rivadavia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.4 goals in total.
When is Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia?
Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Maracanã.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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