Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓92% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.38
Independiente del Valle vs UCV preview and prediction
The match
Independiente del Valle host UCV in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thursday 16 April, with kick-off at 03:00 (WAT) at Estadio Banco De Guayaquil. Independiente del Valle are 1st with 13 points from 6 games, while UCV sit 3rd on 9 points.
Form guide
Independiente del Valle's last 4: DLWW Most recently they drew with Rosario Central 0–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
UCV's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Libertad Asuncion 3–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 2.0 for Independiente del Valle and 0.5 for UCV. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independiente del Valle 73%, draw 19%, UCV 8%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.00.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.48, above our fair price of 1.43, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Independiente del Valle 2–0 UCV. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente del Valle73%fair 1.36 · @1.29
Draw19%fair 5.30 · @5.00
UCV8%fair 12.95 · @10.50
2.49Expected goals
2.00Independiente del Valle xG
0.48UCV xG
51%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–017%
1–017%
3–011%
0–08%
2–18%
1–18%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 2.0 – 0.5 UCV expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
73%
1.36
1.29
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✓
92%
1.08
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.48
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✓
48%
2.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.38
–
Form
Independiente del Valle – last 4
DLWW
9 Apr
@ Rosario Central
0–0
D
20 Mar
@ Emelec
0–2
L
3 Mar
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
23 Feb
vs Guayaquil City FC
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
UCV – last 3
WLW
9 Apr
vs Libertad Asuncion
3–1
W
17 Mar
@ Puerto Cabello
0–3
L
22 Feb
@ Caracas FC
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente del Valle and UCV.
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs UCV?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs UCV?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 19% and UCV 8%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs UCV?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs UCV?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 2–0 UCV, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs UCV?
Independiente del Valle vs UCV (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco De Guayaquil.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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