Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.33Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLDU de Quito to win ✓64% · @1.76
Double chanceLDU de Quito or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗23% · fair 4.43
LDU de Quito vs Mirassol preview and prediction
The match
Mirassol travel to Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Wednesday 15 April (03:00 WAT) to face LDU de Quito. LDU de Quito are 1st with 12 points from 6 games, while Mirassol sit 2nd on 12 points. Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
LDU de Quito's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Delfin SC 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mirassol's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat Lanus 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
LDU de Quito arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.4 for LDU de Quito and 0.4 for Mirassol. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: LDU de Quito 64%, draw 22%, Mirassol 14%.
Safer route: LDU de Quito or draw (86%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 – 62% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.33, above our fair price of 1.25, so there is value in it. Predicted score: LDU de Quito 1–0 Mirassol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
LDU de Quito64%fair 1.56 · @1.76
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.70
Mirassol14%fair 7.23 · @4.30
1.82Expected goals
1.40LDU de Quito xG
0.42Mirassol xG
51%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–023%
0–016%
2–016%
1–110%
3–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: LDU de Quito 1.4 – 0.4 Mirassol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
LDU de Quito to win✓
64%
1.56
1.76 ▲
Double chance
LDU de Quito or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.85 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.33 ▲
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT LDU de Quito / FT LDU de Quito✓
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
23%
4.43
–
Form
LDU de Quito – last 6
LWLWWD
11 Apr
@ Delfin SC
0–1
L
8 Apr
@ Always Ready
1–0
W
4 Apr
vs Barcelona SC
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Manta FC
1–0
W
18 Mar
@ Leones del Norte
2–0
W
15 Mar
vs Universidad Catolica
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Mirassol – last 6
WLLLDL
8 Apr
vs Lanus
1–0
W
6 Apr
vs RB Bragantino
0–1
L
1 Apr
@ Botafogo
2–3
L
19 Mar
vs Coritiba
0–1
L
11 Mar
vs Santos
2–2
D
16 Feb
vs Portuguesa
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between LDU de Quito and Mirassol.
What is the prediction for LDU de Quito vs Mirassol?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win LDU de Quito vs Mirassol?
On our numbers LDU de Quito have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Mirassol 14%.
How many goals will there be in LDU de Quito vs Mirassol?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for LDU de Quito vs Mirassol?
Our predicted score is LDU de Quito 1–0 Mirassol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is LDU de Quito vs Mirassol?
LDU de Quito vs Mirassol (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Boca Juniors3
Barcelona SC0
Bolívar1
Deportivo La Guaira1
Universitario0
Coquimbo Unido2
Cruzeiro1
U. Catolica2
Libertad Asuncion0
Rosario Central1