Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.45 – our chance 55% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +35%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBolívar to win ✗68% · @1.22
Double chanceEither team to win ✗84% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.60
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗23% · fair 4.42
Bolívar vs Deportivo La Guaira preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo La Guaira travel to Estadio Hernando Siles in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Wednesday 15 April (01:00 WAT) to face Bolívar. Bolívar are 3rd with 5 points from 6 games, while Deportivo La Guaira sit 4th on 3 points. Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Bolívar's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Independ. Rivadavia 0–1 away. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game.
Deportivo La Guaira's last 5: WDDDD Most recently they beat Deportivo Tachira FC 3–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.4 for Bolívar and 0.4 for Deportivo La Guaira. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 55% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bolívar 68%, draw 16%, Deportivo La Guaira 16%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.45 – 55% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.36, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bolívar 1–0 Deportivo La Guaira. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bolívar68%fair 1.47 · @1.22
Draw16%fair 6.39 · @5.60
Deportivo La Guaira16%fair 6.18 · @14.00
1.84Expected goals
1.42Bolívar xG
0.41Deportivo La Guaira xG
49%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–023%
2–016%
0–016%
1–19%
3–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Bolívar 1.4 – 0.4 Deportivo La Guaira expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bolívar to win✗
68%
1.47
1.22
Double chance
Either team to win✗
84%
1.19
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
2.45 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.60 ▲
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bolívar / FT Bolívar✗
38%
2.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
23%
4.42
–
Form
Bolívar – last 5
LWLWW
7 Apr
@ Independ. Rivadavia
0–1
L
3 Apr
vs Real Oruro
5–2
W
5 Mar
@ Always Ready
2–3
L
26 Feb
vs Blooming
5–1
W
20 Feb
@ Real Potosí
3–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Deportivo La Guaira – last 6
WDDDDW
10 Apr
@ Deportivo Tachira FC
3–2
W
7 Apr
vs Fluminense
0–0
D
3 Apr
vs Carabobo FC
1–1
D
17 Mar
@ Academia Anzoátegui
0–0
D
14 Mar
vs Puerto Cabello
0–0
D
6 Mar
@ Estudiantes de Merida FC
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bolívar and Deportivo La Guaira.
What is the prediction for Bolívar vs Deportivo La Guaira?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Bolívar vs Deportivo La Guaira?
On our numbers Bolívar have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Deportivo La Guaira 16%.
How many goals will there be in Bolívar vs Deportivo La Guaira?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bolívar vs Deportivo La Guaira?
Our predicted score is Bolívar 1–0 Deportivo La Guaira, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Bolívar vs Deportivo La Guaira?
Bolívar vs Deportivo La Guaira (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Hernando Siles.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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