Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✓72% · @1.37
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓91% · fair 1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · @1.42
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.02
Penarol vs Cerro preview and prediction
The match
Cerro travel to Estadio Campeón del Siglo in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 21 March (23:30 WAT) to face Penarol. Penarol are 5th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Cerro sit 9th on 18 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Penarol's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Albion FC 1–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cerro's last 4: LDDL Most recently they lost to Racing Montevideo 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Penarol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.8 for Penarol and 0.4 for Cerro. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Penarol 72%, draw 19%, Cerro 9%.
Both teams to score: no (58%) at 1.42.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Penarol 1–0 Cerro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penarol72%fair 1.39 · @1.37
Draw19%fair 5.17 · @3.95
Cerro9%fair 11.39 · @9.10
2.19Expected goals
1.78Penarol xG
0.41Cerro xG
42%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–018%
0–011%
3–010%
1–18%
2–17%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.8 – 0.4 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✓
72%
1.39
1.37
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
91%
1.10
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.71
1.42
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.20
Half-time result
Penarol ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✓
45%
2.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.02
–
Form
Penarol – last 5
WDWWL
15 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Danubio
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Club Nacional
1–0
W
23 Feb
vs Deportivo Maldonado
2–1
W
16 Feb
@ Central Espanol
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Cerro – last 4
LDDL
8 Mar
@ Racing Montevideo
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Boston River
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Albion FC
0–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Cerro.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Penarol vs Cerro?
On our numbers Penarol have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Cerro 9%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Cerro?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Cerro?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Cerro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Cerro?
Penarol vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
