Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Junior to win @ 1.84 – our chance 64% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultJunior to win ✓64% · @1.84
Double chanceJunior or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.04
Junior vs Deportivo Pasto preview and prediction
The match
The Primera A sees Junior take on Deportivo Pasto on Sunday 3 May, kicking off at 23:45 (WAT) at Estadio Romelio Martinez. Junior are 14th with 19 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while Deportivo Pasto sit 18th on 15 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Junior's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Sporting Cristal 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Deportivo Pasto's last 5: LWWDL Most recently they lost to Santa Fe 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Deportivo Pasto arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Junior and 0.7 for Deportivo Pasto. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Junior to win at 1.84 – 64% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Junior or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Junior 1–0 Deportivo Pasto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Junior64%fair 1.56 · @1.84
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.45
Deportivo Pasto15%fair 6.83 · @4.20
2.55Expected goals
1.83Junior xG
0.73Deportivo Pasto xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Junior 1.8 – 0.7 Deportivo Pasto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Junior to win✓
64%
1.56
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Junior or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Junior ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Junior / FT Junior✗
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.04
–
Form
Junior – last 6
LWLDLW
29 Apr
@ Sporting Cristal
0–2
L
20 Apr
vs Llaneros
2–0
W
14 Apr
@ Cerro Porteno
0–1
L
9 Apr
vs Palmeiras
1–1
D
4 Apr
vs Deportivo Cali
1–2
L
25 Mar
vs Bucaramanga
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Deportivo Pasto – last 6
LWWDLW
24 Apr
vs Santa Fe
1–2
L
17 Apr
@ Jaguares
3–2
W
11 Apr
vs Deportes Tolima
1–0
W
1 Apr
@ Alianza Valledupar
0–0
D
30 Mar
vs Atletico Nacional
1–2
L
25 Mar
@ Fortaleza FC
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Junior and Deportivo Pasto.
What is the prediction for Junior vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our pick is Junior or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Junior vs Deportivo Pasto?
On our numbers Junior have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Deportivo Pasto 15%.
How many goals will there be in Junior vs Deportivo Pasto?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Junior vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our predicted score is Junior 1–0 Deportivo Pasto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Junior vs Deportivo Pasto?
Junior vs Deportivo Pasto (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 23:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Romelio Martinez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
