Value bet: Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSanfrecce Hiroshima to win ✓62% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.61
Kyoto Sanga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima preview and prediction
The match
Kyoto Sanga host Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 07:00 (WAT) at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera. Kyoto Sanga are 8th with 23 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th on 30 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Kyoto Sanga's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Vissel Kobe 0–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Gamba Osaka 1–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 February 2026, finished Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–2 Kyoto Sanga.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.9 for Kyoto Sanga and 1.9 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win at 1.95 – 62% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Kyoto Sanga 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kyoto Sanga20%fair 5.02 · @3.55
Draw18%fair 5.59 · @3.60
Sanfrecce Hiroshima62%fair 1.61 · @1.95
2.78Expected goals
0.91Kyoto Sanga xG
1.87Sanfrecce Hiroshima xG
57%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–06%
From our goals model: Kyoto Sanga 0.9 – 1.9 Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Kyoto Sanga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Kyoto Sanga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
On our numbers Kyoto Sanga have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sanfrecce Hiroshima 62%.
How many goals will there be in Kyoto Sanga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kyoto Sanga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Our predicted score is Kyoto Sanga 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Kyoto Sanga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Kyoto Sanga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (J1 League) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 07:00 (West Africa Time) at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
JEF United Chiba0
Kashima2
Kawasaki Frontale1
Machida Zelvia1