Value bet: Shimizu S-pulse to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFagiano Okayama to win ✓40% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.22
Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse preview and prediction
The match
The J1 League sees Fagiano Okayama take on Shimizu S-pulse on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 06:00 (WAT) at City Light Stadium. Fagiano Okayama are 6th with 26 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while Shimizu S-pulse sit 7th on 24 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Fagiano Okayama's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Vissel Kobe 3–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Shimizu S-pulse's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Kyoto Sanga 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Fagiano Okayama and 1.3 for Shimizu S-pulse. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Shimizu S-pulse to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Fagiano Okayama 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fagiano Okayama40%fair 2.51 · @2.40
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.10
Shimizu S-pulse36%fair 2.81 · @3.00
2.63Expected goals
1.36Fagiano Okayama xG
1.27Shimizu S-pulse xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Fagiano Okayama 1.4 – 1.3 Shimizu S-pulse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fagiano Okayama to win✓
40%
2.51
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.87
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fagiano Okayama / FT Fagiano Okayama✓
23%
4.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.22
–
Form
Fagiano Okayama – last 6
WLWWLL
10 May
@ Vissel Kobe
3–0
W
6 May
@ V-varen Nagasaki
1–2
L
2 May
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1–0
W
25 Apr
vs Avispa Fukuoka
2–0
W
11 Apr
@ Kyoto Sanga
1–5
L
5 Apr
vs Vissel Kobe
1–4
L
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Shimizu S-pulse – last 6
WLLWLW
2 May
@ Kyoto Sanga
2–1
W
29 Apr
vs V-varen Nagasaki
1–2
L
25 Apr
vs Nagoya Grampus
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ V-varen Nagasaki
3–0
W
1 Apr
@ Vissel Kobe
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fagiano Okayama and Shimizu S-pulse.
What is the prediction for Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse?
On our numbers Fagiano Okayama have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Shimizu S-pulse 36%.
How many goals will there be in Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse?
Our predicted score is Fagiano Okayama 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse?
Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at City Light Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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