Value bet: Nagoya Grampus to win @ 2.88 – our chance 40% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNagoya Grampus to win ✗40% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 11.70
Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus preview and prediction
The match
The J1 League sees Cerezo Osaka take on Nagoya Grampus on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 07:00 (WAT) at Yodoko Sakura Stadium. Cerezo Osaka are 2nd with 31 points from 18 games (in the top four), while Nagoya Grampus sit 3rd on 31 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cerezo Osaka's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat V-varen Nagasaki 3–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Nagoya Grampus's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Kyoto Sanga 3–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nagoya Grampus arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 April 2026, finished Nagoya Grampus 3–0 Cerezo Osaka.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Cerezo Osaka and 1.4 for Nagoya Grampus. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerezo Osaka 37%, draw 23%, Nagoya Grampus 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Nagoya Grampus to win at 2.88 – 40% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Cerezo Osaka 1–1 Nagoya Grampus. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerezo Osaka37%fair 2.68 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.45
Nagoya Grampus40%fair 2.51 · @2.88
2.82Expected goals
1.38Cerezo Osaka xG
1.44Nagoya Grampus xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–26%
From our goals model: Cerezo Osaka 1.4 – 1.4 Nagoya Grampus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus?
On our numbers Cerezo Osaka have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Nagoya Grampus 40%.
How many goals will there be in Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus?
Our predicted score is Cerezo Osaka 1–1 Nagoya Grampus, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus?
Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus (J1 League) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 07:00 (West Africa Time) at Yodoko Sakura Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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