Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
Nagoya Grampus or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Nagoya Grampus to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultNagoya Grampus to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceNagoya Grampus or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.79
Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama preview and prediction
The match
Nagoya Grampus host Fagiano Okayama in the J1 League on Wednesday 29 April, with kick-off at 07:00 (WAT) at Nagoya Mizuho Athletics Stadium. Nagoya Grampus are 3rd with 31 points from 18 games (in the top four), while Fagiano Okayama sit 6th on 26 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Nagoya Grampus's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Shimizu S-pulse 2–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Fagiano Okayama's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Avispa Fukuoka 2–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Nagoya Grampus arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for Nagoya Grampus and 0.9 for Fagiano Okayama. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nagoya Grampus 60%, draw 26%, Fagiano Okayama 15%.
Safer route: Nagoya Grampus or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Nagoya Grampus to win at 1.95 – 60% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Nagoya Grampus or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Nagoya Grampus 1–0 Fagiano Okayama. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nagoya Grampus60%fair 1.68 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.25
Fagiano Okayama15%fair 6.88 · @3.95
2.84Expected goals
1.94Nagoya Grampus xG
0.90Fagiano Okayama xG
52%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Nagoya Grampus 1.9 – 0.9 Fagiano Okayama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nagoya Grampus to win✗
60%
1.68
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Nagoya Grampus or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.25
Half-time result
Nagoya Grampus ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nagoya Grampus / FT Nagoya Grampus✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.79
–
Form
Nagoya Grampus – last 6
WWWLWL
25 Apr
@ Shimizu S-pulse
2–0
W
4 Apr
vs Cerezo Osaka
3–0
W
18 Mar
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2–1
W
14 Mar
vs Vissel Kobe
0–3
L
7 Mar
@ Avispa Fukuoka
5–1
W
21 Feb
vs V-varen Nagasaki
1–3
L
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Fagiano Okayama – last 6
WLLLWW
25 Apr
vs Avispa Fukuoka
2–0
W
11 Apr
@ Kyoto Sanga
1–5
L
5 Apr
vs Vissel Kobe
1–4
L
21 Mar
vs V-varen Nagasaki
0–1
L
18 Mar
@ Cerezo Osaka
2–1
W
8 Mar
vs Kyoto Sanga
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nagoya Grampus and Fagiano Okayama.
What is the prediction for Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama?
Our pick is Nagoya Grampus or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama?
On our numbers Nagoya Grampus have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fagiano Okayama 15%.
How many goals will there be in Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama?
Our predicted score is Nagoya Grampus 1–0 Fagiano Okayama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama?
Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama (J1 League) kicks off on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 07:00 (West Africa Time) at Nagoya Mizuho Athletics Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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