Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Shimizu S-pulse or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Shimizu S-pulse to win @ 1.95 – our chance 63% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultShimizu S-pulse to win ✗63% · @1.95
Double chanceShimizu S-pulse or draw ✗84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.35
Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki preview and prediction
The match
Shimizu S-pulse host V-varen Nagasaki in the J1 League on Wednesday 29 April, with kick-off at 05:00 (WAT) at IAI Stadium Nihondaira. Shimizu S-pulse are 7th with 24 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while V-varen Nagasaki sit 9th on 21 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Shimizu S-pulse's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Nagoya Grampus 0–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
V-varen Nagasaki's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Shimizu S-pulse arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 5 April 2026, finished V-varen Nagasaki 0–3 Shimizu S-pulse.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Shimizu S-pulse and 0.8 for V-varen Nagasaki. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 58%.
Safer route: Shimizu S-pulse or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Shimizu S-pulse to win at 1.95 – 63% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Shimizu S-pulse or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Shimizu S-pulse 1–0 V-varen Nagasaki. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shimizu S-pulse63%fair 1.59 · @1.95
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.40
V-varen Nagasaki16%fair 6.19 · @3.80
2.59Expected goals
1.82Shimizu S-pulse xG
0.77V-varen Nagasaki xG
58%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Shimizu S-pulse 1.8 – 0.8 V-varen Nagasaki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki?
Our pick is Shimizu S-pulse or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki?
On our numbers Shimizu S-pulse have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and V-varen Nagasaki 16%.
How many goals will there be in Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki?
Our predicted score is Shimizu S-pulse 1–0 V-varen Nagasaki, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki?
Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki (J1 League) kicks off on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time) at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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