Value bet: Shimizu S-pulse to win @ 3.10 – our chance 34% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultCerezo Osaka to win ✗45% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.77
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse preview and prediction
The match
Shimizu S-pulse travel to Yodoko Sakura Stadium in the J1 League on Saturday 7 March (07:00 WAT) to face Cerezo Osaka. Cerezo Osaka are 2nd with 31 points from 18 games (in the top four), while Shimizu S-pulse sit 7th on 24 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Cerezo Osaka's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to V-varen Nagasaki 0–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Cerezo Osaka and 1.1 for Shimizu S-pulse. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 59%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Shimizu S-pulse to win at 3.10 – 34% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Cerezo Osaka 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerezo Osaka45%fair 2.24 · @2.20
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.40
Shimizu S-pulse34%fair 2.91 · @3.10
2.42Expected goals
1.31Cerezo Osaka xG
1.10Shimizu S-pulse xG
59%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Cerezo Osaka 1.3 – 1.1 Shimizu S-pulse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cerezo Osaka to win✗
45%
2.24
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cerezo Osaka / FT Cerezo Osaka✗
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.77
–
Form
Cerezo Osaka – last 3
LLW
28 Feb
@ V-varen Nagasaki
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ Avispa Fukuoka
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Shimizu S-pulse – last 2
WD
21 Feb
vs Vissel Kobe
1–0
W
14 Feb
vs Kyoto Sanga
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerezo Osaka and Shimizu S-pulse.
What is the prediction for Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse?
On our numbers Cerezo Osaka have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Shimizu S-pulse 34%.
How many goals will there be in Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse?
Our predicted score is Cerezo Osaka 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse?
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 07:00 (West Africa Time) at Yodoko Sakura Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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