Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.25Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenapolense to win ✓77% · @1.05
Double chancePenapolense or draw ✓89% · fair 1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.86
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗13% · fair 7.79
Penapolense vs AEA preview and prediction
The match
Penapolense host AEA in the Paulista A4 on Saturday 28 March, with kick-off at 23:30 (WAT).
Form guide
Penapolense's last 5: DDWDL Most recently they drew with Barretos 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
AEA's last 4: LLLL Most recently they lost to Vocem 0–4 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Penapolense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.4 for Penapolense and 0.7 for AEA. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 68% and both teams to score at 46%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Penapolense 77%, draw 12%, AEA 11%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Penapolense 3–0 AEA. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penapolense77%fair 1.30 · @1.05
Draw12%fair 8.01 · @11.00
AEA11%fair 9.24 · @23.00
3.12Expected goals
2.41Penapolense xG
0.71AEA xG
46%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Penapolense 2.4 – 0.7 AEA expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penapolense to win✓
77%
1.30
1.05
Double chance
Penapolense or draw✓
89%
1.12
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Penapolense ahead at half-time✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penapolense / FT Penapolense✓
51%
1.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
13%
7.79
–
Form
Penapolense – last 6
DDWDLD
25 Mar
vs Barretos
1–1
D
21 Mar
@ Grêmio Sãocarlense
0–0
D
18 Mar
vs Jabaquara
3–2
W
7 Mar
vs Inter de Bebedouro
0–0
D
4 Mar
@ EC Lemense
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Vocem
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
AEA – last 4
LLLL
26 Mar
vs Vocem
0–4
L
19 Mar
vs Nacional SP
2–3
L
5 Mar
@ Inter de Bebedouro
0–4
L
25 Feb
@ Joseense
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
3.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penapolense and AEA.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Penapolense vs AEA?
On our numbers Penapolense have a 77% chance of winning, the draw 12% and AEA 11%.
How many goals will there be in Penapolense vs AEA?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penapolense vs AEA?
Our predicted score is Penapolense 3–0 AEA, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Penapolense vs AEA?
Penapolense vs AEA (Paulista A4) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A4 · Brazil
ECUS
EC Lemense
Jabaquara
Comercial
Tanabi
Colorado Caieiras
Barretos
Nacional SP
Inter de Bebedouro
Taquaritinga
Grêmio Sãocarlense4
São Caetano1
Vocem0
Joseense1