Value bet: ECUS to win @ 2.95 – our chance 44% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +30%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultECUS to win44% · @2.95
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score50% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals84% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–017% · fair 5.96
ECUS vs EC Lemense preview and prediction
The match
The Paulista A4 sees ECUS take on EC Lemense on Saturday 28 March, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT).
Form guide
ECUS's last 5: DWWLD Most recently they drew with Nacional SP 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
EC Lemense's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Jabaquara 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for ECUS and 0.8 for EC Lemense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: ECUS 44%, draw 23%, EC Lemense 33%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.60.
Value angle: ECUS to win at 2.95 – 44% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: ECUS 0–0 EC Lemense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ECUS44%fair 2.27 · @2.95
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.00
EC Lemense33%fair 3.06 · @2.35
1.77Expected goals
0.99ECUS xG
0.78EC Lemense xG
50%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–017%
1–017%
0–113%
1–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: ECUS 1.0 – 0.8 EC Lemense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ECUS to win
44%
2.27
2.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
50%
1.99
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
57%
1.74
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
69%
1.45
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
84%
1.19
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
17%
5.96
–
Form
ECUS – last 6
DWWLDL
25 Mar
@ Nacional SP
0–0
D
18 Mar
@ Colorado Caieiras
2–0
W
8 Mar
vs Jabaquara
1–0
W
4 Mar
vs Tanabi
0–1
L
25 Feb
@ São Caetano
0–0
D
14 Feb
@ Penapolense
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
EC Lemense – last 5
DLDWW
25 Mar
vs Jabaquara
0–0
D
21 Mar
@ Vocem
1–2
L
18 Mar
vs Joseense
0–0
D
4 Mar
vs Penapolense
1–0
W
25 Feb
@ Nacional SP
1–0
W
0.6Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ECUS and EC Lemense.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win ECUS vs EC Lemense?
On our numbers ECUS have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and EC Lemense 33%.
How many goals will there be in ECUS vs EC Lemense?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ECUS vs EC Lemense?
Our predicted score is ECUS 0–0 EC Lemense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is ECUS vs EC Lemense?
ECUS vs EC Lemense (Paulista A4) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A4 · Brazil
Jabaquara
Comercial
Tanabi
Colorado Caieiras
Barretos
Nacional SP
Inter de Bebedouro
Taquaritinga
Grêmio Sãocarlense4
São Caetano1
Penapolense6
AEA0
Vocem0
Joseense1