Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato prediction & analysis
88%
Footrivo pick
Chacarita Juniors or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Chacarita Juniors to win @ 1.83 – our chance 61% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultChacarita Juniors to win ✓61% · @1.83
Double chanceChacarita Juniors or draw ✓88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.39
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓22% · fair 4.52
Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato preview and prediction
The match
The Primera Nacional sees Chacarita Juniors take on Patronato on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Estadio de Chacarita Juniors. Chacarita Juniors are 14th with 42 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Patronato sit 16th on 38 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Chacarita Juniors's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Colegiales 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Patronato's last 5: WDDDL Most recently they beat San Martin S.J. 3–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Patronato arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Patronato 2–0 Chacarita Juniors.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.4 for Chacarita Juniors and 0.4 for Patronato. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely.
Safer route: Chacarita Juniors or draw (88%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Chacarita Juniors to win at 1.83 – 61% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Chacarita Juniors or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Chacarita Juniors 1–0 Patronato. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chacarita Juniors61%fair 1.64 · @1.83
Draw27%fair 3.74 · @3.00
Patronato12%fair 8.24 · @4.00
1.84Expected goals
1.39Chacarita Juniors xG
0.45Patronato xG
46%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–022%
0–016%
2–015%
1–110%
3–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Chacarita Juniors 1.4 – 0.4 Patronato expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato?
Our pick is Chacarita Juniors or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato?
On our numbers Chacarita Juniors have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Patronato 12%.
How many goals will there be in Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato?
Our predicted score is Chacarita Juniors 1–0 Patronato, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato?
Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Chacarita Juniors.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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