Value bet: Atlanta to win @ 2.80 – our chance 38% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtlanta to win ✓38% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗72% · fair 1.39
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.73
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta preview and prediction
The match
The Primera Nacional sees Atletico DE Rafaela take on Atlanta on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 21:30 (WAT) at Estadio Nuevo Monumental. Atletico DE Rafaela are 11th with 47 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Atlanta sit 2nd on 62 points (in the top four). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atletico DE Rafaela's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Gimnasia Y Tiro 0–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Atlanta's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Agropecuario 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atlanta arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.9 for Atletico DE Rafaela and 0.9 for Atlanta. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico DE Rafaela 36%, draw 26%, Atlanta 38%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Atlanta to win at 2.80 – 38% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 Atlanta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico DE Rafaela36%fair 2.79 · @2.60
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @2.80
Atlanta38%fair 2.63 · @2.80
1.85Expected goals
0.91Atletico DE Rafaela xG
0.94Atlanta xG
49%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–016%
0–115%
1–014%
1–113%
0–27%
2–06%
From our goals model: Atletico DE Rafaela 0.9 – 0.9 Atlanta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atlanta to win✓
38%
2.63
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.94
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
88%
1.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.73
–
Form
Atletico DE Rafaela – last 6
LWLLWD
27 Sep
@ Gimnasia Y Tiro
0–1
L
19 Sep
vs San Martin Tucuman
4–2
W
13 Sep
@ Gimnasia Jujuy
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Agropecuario
0–2
L
29 Aug
vs Tristan Suarez
2–1
W
24 Aug
@ Club Atlético Güemes
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atlanta – last 6
WDWWLL
27 Sep
vs Agropecuario
1–0
W
21 Sep
@ Tristan Suarez
0–0
D
12 Sep
vs Club Atlético Güemes
2–0
W
5 Sep
@ Chacarita Juniors
1–0
W
30 Aug
vs San Martin S.J.
0–1
L
26 Aug
@ Patronato
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico DE Rafaela and Atlanta.
What is the prediction for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta?
On our numbers Atletico DE Rafaela have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Atlanta 38%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta?
Our predicted score is Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 Atlanta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta?
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Monumental.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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