Primera Nacional · Argentina · Estadio Osvaldo BalettoSan Telmo vs Almirante Brown prediction & analysis
Not both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.86 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Almirante Brown to win @ 2.90 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: San Telmo 0.8 – 0.8 Almirante Brown expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates San Telmo and Almirante Brown on our numbers – 34% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 29% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
San Telmo have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.8 per game. Almirante Brown have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.5 scored and 0.3 conceded.
We expect around 1.6 goals (0.8 for San Telmo, 0.8 for Almirante Brown). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 78% likely. Most likely scores: 0–0 (20%), 0–1 (17%), 1–0 (16%).
Our pick is Not both teams to score at a 54% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is close to our fair price of 1.86. For a bigger price, Almirante Brown to win at 2.90 is our value angle (37% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Almirante Brown to win ✗ | 37% | 2.71 | 2.90 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 92% | 1.09 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 56% | 1.80 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 27% | 3.65 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 17% | 6.04 | – |
Form
San Telmo – last 6
| 27 Sep | @ Atletico Mitre | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs CA Estudiantes | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ All Boys | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Los Andes | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | @ Godoy Cruz | 0–3 | L |
| 26 Aug | @ Acassuso | 2–1 | W |
Almirante Brown – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Acassuso | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Chaco For Ever | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Ferro Carril Oeste | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Central Norte | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Deportivo Madryn | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Defensores De Belgrano | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Telmo and Almirante Brown.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Godoy Cruz | 36 | +20 | 66 |
| 2 |  Ferro Carril Oeste | 36 | +7 | 66 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Moron | 36 | +16 | 61 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Madryn | 36 | +21 | 60 |
| 5 |  Colon Santa Fe | 36 | +18 | 60 |
| 6 |  Almirante Brown | 36 | +4 | 51 |
| 7 |  Ciudad de Bolívar | 36 | -3 | 51 |
| 8 |  CA Estudiantes | 36 | 0 | 49 |
| 9 |  Chaco For Ever | 36 | +2 | 46 |
| 10 |  Los Andes | 36 | +1 | 43 |
| 11 |  All Boys | 36 | -8 | 41 |
| 12 |  San Telmo | 36 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Atletico Mitre | 36 | -11 | 40 |
| 14 |  Racing Cordoba | 36 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 |  Defensores De Belgrano | 36 | -9 | 39 |
| 16 |  Central Norte | 36 | -9 | 38 |
| 17 |  Acassuso | 36 | -10 | 35 |
| 18 |  San Miguel | 36 | -15 | 33 |
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Gimnasia Y Tiro0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for San Telmo vs Almirante Brown?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win San Telmo vs Almirante Brown?
On our numbers San Telmo have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Almirante Brown 37%.
How many goals will there be in San Telmo vs Almirante Brown?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 22% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
When is San Telmo vs Almirante Brown?
San Telmo vs Almirante Brown (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Osvaldo Baletto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.