Value bet: San Martin S.J. to win @ 3.50 – our chance 36% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultQuilmes to win ✓37% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · fair 1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.12
Quilmes vs San Martin S.J. preview and prediction
The match
Quilmes host San Martin S.J. in the Primera Nacional on Saturday 12 September, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes. Quilmes are 13th with 45 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while San Martin S.J. sit 9th on 51 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Quilmes's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to Nueva Chicago 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
San Martin S.J.'s last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Midland 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
San Martin S.J. arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for Quilmes and 1.0 for San Martin S.J.. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Quilmes 37%, draw 27%, San Martin S.J. 36%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.62.
Value angle: San Martin S.J. to win at 3.50 – 36% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Quilmes 0–0 San Martin S.J.. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Quilmes37%fair 2.68 · @2.25
Draw27%fair 3.68 · @2.70
San Martin S.J.36%fair 2.81 · @3.50
1.96Expected goals
1.00Quilmes xG
0.96San Martin S.J. xG
48%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–014%
1–014%
0–114%
1–114%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Quilmes 1.0 – 1.0 San Martin S.J. expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Quilmes to win✓
37%
2.68
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
7.12
–
Form
Quilmes – last 6
LLLWDW
7 Sep
@ Nueva Chicago
0–1
L
30 Aug
vs Temperley
0–1
L
23 Aug
@ Deportivo Maipu
0–1
L
15 Aug
vs San Telmo
3–0
W
9 Aug
vs Almagro
1–1
D
5 Aug
vs Gimnasia Jujuy
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
San Martin S.J. – last 6
WWWDDD
6 Sep
vs Midland
3–2
W
30 Aug
@ Atlanta
1–0
W
22 Aug
vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
3–1
W
16 Aug
@ Racing Cordoba
0–0
D
9 Aug
@ San Martin Tucuman
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Atletico DE Rafaela
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Quilmes and San Martin S.J..
What is the prediction for Quilmes vs San Martin S.J.?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Quilmes vs San Martin S.J.?
On our numbers Quilmes have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 27% and San Martin S.J. 36%.
How many goals will there be in Quilmes vs San Martin S.J.?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Quilmes vs San Martin S.J.?
Our predicted score is Quilmes 0–0 San Martin S.J., the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Quilmes vs San Martin S.J.?
Quilmes vs San Martin S.J. (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
All Boys0
San Telmo1