Value bet: Deportivo Maipu to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Maipu to win ✗37% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.44
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 14.00
Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu preview and prediction
The match
Almagro host Deportivo Maipu in the Primera Nacional on Saturday 12 September, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Estadio Tres de Febrero. Almagro are 15th with 42 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Deportivo Maipu sit 6th on 52 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Almagro's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Gimnasia Jujuy 1–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Deportivo Maipu's last 5: DLWWL Most recently they drew with Patronato 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Deportivo Maipu arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Almagro and 1.1 for Deportivo Maipu. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Deportivo Maipu to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 2.15, above our fair price of 1.94, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Almagro 1–1 Deportivo Maipu. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Almagro35%fair 2.85 · @2.50
Draw28%fair 3.63 · @2.62
Deportivo Maipu37%fair 2.68 · @3.10
2.07Expected goals
1.01Almagro xG
1.06Deportivo Maipu xG
52%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–114%
0–113%
1–013%
0–013%
1–27%
0–27%
From our goals model: Almagro 1.0 – 1.1 Deportivo Maipu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Maipu to win✗
37%
2.68
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
72%
1.38
1.44
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
84%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
21%
4.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
14.00
–
Form
Almagro – last 6
LWDLDL
6 Sep
vs Gimnasia Jujuy
1–2
L
30 Aug
@ Patronato
1–0
W
22 Aug
vs Colegiales
0–0
D
15 Aug
@ Deportivo Moron
0–2
L
9 Aug
@ Quilmes
1–1
D
5 Aug
vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Deportivo Maipu – last 6
DLWWLW
6 Sep
vs Patronato
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Colegiales
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs Quilmes
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Godoy Cruz
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Midland
0–2
L
2 Aug
vs Atlanta
4–2
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Almagro and Deportivo Maipu.
What is the prediction for Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.15.
Who will win Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu?
On our numbers Almagro have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Deportivo Maipu 37%.
How many goals will there be in Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu?
Our predicted score is Almagro 1–1 Deportivo Maipu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu?
Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tres de Febrero.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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